Forecasting Textbook Reviews
Although textbooks are not viewed as supplemental to most courses, choosing an appropriate textbook is essential if the instructor has never been through a forecasting class as a student. While the criterion for choosing a textbook remains highly subjective, textbook reviews such as Cox (1987) and Cox and Loomis (2001) can lower the search costs considerably. Cox and Loomis (2001) review 18 books concerning forecasting that have been published since 1990. About half of the books may be suitable for an economics forecasting class. The other books have a general business forecasting approach that may still be useful for reference but would probably not be chosen as the main textbook. Even among economic forecasting books, some are more suitable for introductory classroom use because they have exercises and case studies at the end of chapters. For example, Pindyck and Rubinfeld (1998); Diebold (1998); Newbold and Bos (1994); and Bails and Peppers (1993) all provide exercises at the end of each chapter. Hanke and Reitsch (1998); and Wilson and Keating (1998) provide exercises and extensive case studies at the end of each chapter.
Pindyck and Rubinfeld (1998) have a traditional econometrics approach, and cover much of the time-series material. This book can easily be used for a standard econometrics class and has applications in both microeconomics and macroeconomics. Diebold (1998) is more limited in scope covering time-series methods only. Although there is no discussion of regression analysis, the book has excellent chapters on graphical analysis and forecasting principles. Bails and Peppers (1993) and Wilson and Keating (1998) both have general forecasting process information and include both quantitative (regression and time-series) and qualitative techniques. Bails and Peppers have more macroeconomic applications and Wilson and Keating have more microeconomic applications.
References:
Cox, J. E., Jr. (1987), "An Assessment of Books Relevant to Forecasting in Marketing," International Journal of Forecasting, 3, 515-527.
Cox , J. E. and D. G. Loomis (2001), "Diffusion of Forecasting Principles Through Books," in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, by J. S. Armstrong (ed.), Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
List of Textbooks
Bails, D. G. & L. C. Peppers (1993), Business Fluctuations: Forecasting Techniques & Applications, 2nd ed. Englewood, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Clements, M. P. & D. F. Hendry (1998), Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Clements, M. P. & D. F. Hendry (1999), Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
DeLurgio, S. A. (1998), Forecasting Principles and Applications. New York: Irwin/McGraw Hill.
Diebold, F. X. (1998), Elements of Forecasting. Cincinnati: Southwestern College Publishing.
Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Gaynor, P. & R. C. Kirkpatrick (1994), Introduction to Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting in Business and Economics. New York: McGraw Hill.
Hanke, J. E. & A. G. Reitsch (1998), Business Forecasting, 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Holden, K., D. A. Peel, & J.L. Thompson (1990), Economic Forecasting: An Introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kacapyr, E. (1996), Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.
Makridakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright & R. J. Hyndman (1998), Forecasting: Methods and Applications. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Mentzer, J. T. & C. C. Bienstock (1998), Sales Forecasting Management. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
Metcalfe, M. (1995), Forecasting Profit. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Newbold, P. & T. Bos (1994), Introductory Business & Economic Forecasting, 2nd ed. Cincinnati: Southwestern College Publishing.
Pindyck, R. S. & D. L. Rubinfeld (1998), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th Ed. New York: McGraw Hill.
Shim, J., J. Siegel, & C.J. Liew (1994), Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real-World Company Performance. Chicago: Probus Publishing Co.
Tryfos, P. (1997), Methods for Business Analysis and Forecasting: Text and Cases. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Wilson, J. H. & B. Keating (1998), Business Forecasting, 2nd ed. New York: Irwin/McGraw Hill.
Wright, G. & P. Goodwin (eds.) (1998), Forecasting with Judgment. New York, John Wiley & Sons.